Overview
- INEGI’s advance estimate shows industry fell 1.5% quarter‑on‑quarter and 2.9% year‑on‑year, services edged up 0.1% quarterly and 0.9% annually, and primary activities rose 3.2% quarterly.
- The reading points to the first year‑on‑year quarterly decline since 2021, interrupting modest gains earlier in 2025.
- The Treasury describes the setback as concentrated rather than generalized and maintains a non‑recession baseline, highlighting net public debt at 49.9% of GDP.
- Major banks and private analysts caution that growth is stalling, with 2026 projections clustered near 1%–1.7% and recession risk still in focus.
- Coverage links the industrial drag to U.S. tariffs and uncertainty around the T‑MEC review, and INEGI will publish the final Q3 GDP on November 21.