Overview
- INEGI reported a 0.3% contraction in GDP both quarter over quarter and year over year for July–September, the first annual decline since early 2021.
- Industrial output led the downturn with drops of 1.5% quarterly and 2.9% annually, with reporting linking the weakness to tariff uncertainty and the winding down of major public works.
- Sheinbaum said the setback is confined to the third quarter and not expected to extend into 2026, citing analyses from Banxico, the Finance Ministry, and private forecasters.
- On autos, she said tariff effects were delayed by large inventories and recent plant closures reflect companies’ model and capacity decisions rather than a direct tariff impact.
- Primary activity expanded about 3.2% quarterly and 3% annually while commerce and services were nearly flat, and the government highlighted employment gains and planned investments as supports for a late‑year recovery.