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Mexico’s Economy Shrinks 0.3% in Q3 2025 as Industry Stalls

A preliminary INEGI reading points to the first year-on-year quarterly decline since early 2021.

Overview

  • INEGI’s opportune estimate shows real GDP fell 0.3% from the previous quarter after two straight quarters of growth.
  • Industrial activity dropped 1.5% quarter over quarter, outweighing a 3.2% rise in primary activities and a 0.1% gain in services.
  • Output declined 0.2% from a year earlier, marking the first interannual quarterly contraction in over four years.
  • The figures are preliminary and may be revised when INEGI publishes the final third-quarter GDP on November 21.
  • Analysts said the result roughly matched expectations, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a 2025 growth forecast near 0.5%.