Overview

• INEGI reported a 0.9% monthly drop in July economic activity and a 1.2% annual decline, with Banxico forecasting 0.6% growth for 2025 and the IMF at 1.0%.
• Investment weakened as gross fixed capital formation fell 1.4% month over month and 6.8% year over year in June, while the business-confidence gauge slid to 49.3 in August, its sixth straight month below 50.
• Formal hiring disappointed, with 216,538 IMSS jobs created from January to August, the lowest comparable figure since 2003 excluding the crisis years of 2009 and 2020.
• Private-sector groups cite high insecurity and pending judicial reforms for dampening sentiment, and IMEF flags added strain from U.S. tariff actions and a deeper‑than‑expected T‑MEC renegotiation.
• The presidency is amplifying its record with a documentary premiering October 3 and a public report in Mexico City’s Zócalo on October 5, as allied officials highlight projects such as new hospitals and roads in Sonora.