Overview
- Inegi reported GDP fell 0.19% year over year in the third quarter and 0.3% from the prior quarter, ending a run of positive annual readings.
- The IGAE showed a 0.6% month‑on‑month decline in September, the steepest monthly fall of 2025 and a signal of fading momentum into year‑end.
- Secondary activities led the downturn, with industry down 2.7% year over year in Q3 and 3.3% in September, while services posted only modest gains.
- Forecasts for full‑year 2025 were cut to a low range—Goldman Sachs at 0.3%, Finamex at 0.6%, and Banamex at 0.2%—as a Banxico board member warned the result could be below 0.6%.
- Tertiary activity provided limited support with roughly 1% annual growth, while fixed investment fell nearly 7% between January and August, pointing to strained growth drivers.