Overview
- INEGI’s timely estimate points to a quarterly GDP drop of about 0.29%–0.3% in Q3 2025, with the final reading due November 21.
- Secondary activities fell roughly 1.5% quarter‑to‑quarter, services slowed sharply to near‑flat growth, and primary activities rebounded by about 3.2%.
- President Claudia Sheinbaum and the Finance Ministry attribute the setback to the lagged impact of U.S. tariff measures on manufacturing, particularly autos.
- Sheinbaum said recent automotive plant closures reflected prior product decisions rather than tariffs, and authorities expect conditions to improve late in 2025.
- Analysts flag soft full‑year growth near 0.5% and structural drags in energy, construction and investment; separately, tourism GDP rose 0.4% in Q2 with internal consumption up 2.3% q/q and receptive down 4.7%.