Overview
- INEGI’s index fell 1.6 points to 44.2 in November, the steepest monthly decline since December 2021 and the lowest level since December 2022.
- All five components weakened, with the employment expectations gauge dropping 1.09 points month over month and 5.99 year over year, extending a year-long run of annual declines.
- High‑frequency data show soft demand: September private consumption was essentially flat, gross fixed investment fell 8.4% year over year, and October remittances declined 1.7% from a year earlier.
- INEGI’s coincident indicator remained below trend in September (99.4), while the leading indicator stayed above trend in October (100.7), signaling a possible near‑term rebound.
- Banco Base cautioned that persistent confidence losses could further weaken consumption and raise recession risk, and Banxico’s survey trimmed 2026 growth expectations to about 1.37%.