Overview
- Official SHCP data show the Saldo Histórico de los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (SHRFSP) reached 19.22 trillion pesos, about 51.5% of GDP, based on July 2026 figures.
- The Finance Ministry's Precriterios for 2027 project the expanded debt will close 2026 near 20.42 trillion pesos, roughly 54.3–54.7% of GDP after INEGI's 2025 nominal-GDP revision.
- Higher-than-planned deficits are driven by a legacy shortfall inherited from 2024 and continuing fiscal support for Pemex, which prevented the administration from meeting its early deficit targets.
- Subnational finances remain broadly sustainable for a fifth consecutive quarter under the SHCP's Sistema de Alertas, but Coahuila, Chihuahua and Nuevo León show medium risk on debt-service and municipal debt is heavily concentrated in a few states.
- Rating agencies and analysts warn that without deeper fiscal changes the rising debt path could raise borrowing costs and force future cuts or revenue measures that would affect public services and investment.