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Mexico’s Bank Mortgages Shrink as Argentina’s Rebound Faces Currency Strains

Durability now depends on macro stability rather than headline rate moves.

Overview

  • BBVA reports Mexico’s commercial banks issued 44,500 home‑purchase mortgages in H1 2025, down 6.8%, with pesos financed falling 10.3% and the average loan size slipping 3.7%.
  • The bank cites weaker formal employment and faster home‑price gains for eroding affordability, noting mortgage rates track 10‑year bonds more than the policy rate.
  • Public lender Infonavit expanded acquisition financing 5.1% in loan count and 7.6% in amount to mid‑2025, while Fovissste posted declines.
  • Argentina logged a record US$482 million in mortgage operations in September and US$3.41 billion year‑to‑date, yet the market remains very small relative to GDP.
  • Dollar volatility is triggering rush closings as disbursements use the prior official rate—often requiring blue‑market cash to cover shortfalls—while banks raise rates and tighten scoring that industry sources say leaves roughly 15% of people eligible.