Overview
- The Paquete Económico 2027 and SHCP’s Criterios Generales project a 3.9% RFSP fiscal deficit for 2027 and a broad public debt (SHRFSP) that reaches 56.4% of GDP by 2030.
- Independent analysts including Alejandro Werner and México Evalúa say the 3.9% target is too small to stop rising debt and expect deficits closer to 4–5% of GDP without a major fiscal reform.
- Werner warns that Pemex’s unresolved fiscal weaknesses are dragging on Mexico’s sovereign rating and could push the country toward speculative-grade status if not fixed.
- Recent Federal Reserve rate increases, a U.S. 10-year yield above 5% and higher oil prices have raised market financing costs, calling into question the budget’s assumptions on domestic rates and the peso.
- Much of Mexico’s debt is in pesos which reduces direct exchange-rate amplification, but high implicit interest costs already absorb a large share of revenues and analysts say stabilizing debt would require about two percentage points of GDP in primary balance improvement, a change that would need substantive reform.