Overview
- IIF now forecasts Mexico’s GDP at 0.3% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, well below the government’s outlook.
- The federal macro framework pegs growth at 1.0% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, forming the basis for the approved budget.
- The 2026 revenue law targets 10.194 trillion pesos in total income, including 1.473 trillion from financing.
- IIF cites institutional fragility, limited fiscal space, infrastructure bottlenecks, slowing remittances, and tariff/T-MEC uncertainty as growth drags.
- Private and multilateral estimates remain weak—BNP Paribas at 0.9% for 2026, Banco Base and Banca Mifel at 0.8%, and recent IMF, CEPAL, and World Bank downgrades for 2025—while IIF sees modest FDI at 2.5–3% of GDP and softer 2026 capital-flow returns.