Overview

• SMN and Conagua are tracking Depression Doce‑E off Jalisco with high odds of cyclogenesis, prompting alerts for very strong rains, 50–70 km/h gusts and 2.5–3.5 m surf on coasts of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán.
• The Mexican monsoon, a stationary front and tropical waves are driving widespread downpours from the northwest to the southeast, with the Valley of Mexico forecast for 50–75 mm, electrical activity and possible hail.
• Guidance for Wednesday to Friday points to the system shifting toward the Baja California peninsula and Gulf of California, with risks of torrential rain, winds up to about 90 km/h and waves reaching 4.5–6.5 m on northern and northwestern coasts.
• Heat will remain intense in the northwest with highs above 40–45 °C in parts of Baja California and Sonora, while highland areas in Chihuahua, Durango, Estado de México and Puebla may see 0–5 °C at dawn.
• In Argentina, the SMN issued yellow wind alerts for sectors of Catamarca, Salta, Tucumán and La Rioja with 50–70 km/h winds and gusts over 90 km/h, alongside a cold push bringing subzero readings and periods of rain or snow in some regions.