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Mexico Unveils 2026 Budget Centered on Social Programs, Pemex Support and Tariff Hikes

The plan pairs near‑term aid for the state oil company with trade and tax measures to bolster revenue.

Overview

  • The 10.1 trillion‑peso package dedicates about 987 billion pesos to social programs, presented by Finance Minister Édgar Amador as a socially focused budget.
  • Officials said 46% of Pemex’s debt matures in the current term and 26% falls in 2025–2026, with federal backing continuing through 2026 and a goal for the company to operate without support in 2027.
  • The proposal raises import duties on more than 1,400 tariff lines to protect domestic industry, with Hacienda estimating roughly 70 billion pesos in additional revenue under the Plan México framework.
  • Fiscal changes for banks include removing the deductibility of payments tied to IPAB/Fobaproa and proposed tax treatment for potentially uncollectible loans, prompting concern from lenders and regulators.
  • Economists warn the package implies a wider deficit and higher public‑debt ratios near the low‑50s percent of GDP, as spending shifts include a large increase for Energy and a real cut to the civilian Security ministry.