Overview

• Conagua and SMN are monitoring two low‑pressure areas in the eastern Pacific that could organize into the next named system, Narda.
• The disturbance south of Oaxaca is now about 290 km south of Puerto Ángel with a 60% chance of development in 48 hours and 80% in seven days, moving west‑northwest.
• The low south of Baja California Sur sits roughly 500 km southwest of Cabo San Lucas with a 10% chance of development over both 48 hours and seven days.
• Forecasts indicate the Oaxaca system could become a tropical cyclone early next week and track west roughly parallel to the coast, bringing heavy rain, strong winds and high surf, with intense rain possible in Guerrero.
• So far this season, the Pacific basin has produced 13 tropical cyclones, seven of them hurricanes, and only one landfall in Mexico, while SMN still projects roughly 11 more systems in 2025.