Overview

• Conagua and the SMN report a low about 1,270 km south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas moving west-northwest at 24 km/h, with 60% odds of cyclogenesis in 48 hours and 80% in seven days.
• Forecasters say the disturbance could organize into the next named system, Kiko, later this weekend or early next week if strengthening continues.
• A separate area expected to form off Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán holds a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.
• Authorities note both systems remain well offshore, yet moisture from the monsoon and associated bands could trigger heavy rain, flooding and hazardous seas along parts of western Mexico.
• This season has produced 10 Pacific cyclones, including five hurricanes—Bárbara, Erick, Flossie, Gil and Henriette—with Erick the only one to make landfall, affecting Guerrero and Oaxaca.