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Mexico Touts Sharp Homicide Drop Under Sheinbaum as Analysts Urge Caution

The data cited come from state prosecutors, subject to later revision by INEGI.

Overview

  • Officials reported a nearly 40% decline in killings since October 2024, with the daily average falling to 52.4 in December 2025 from 86.9 in September 2024.
  • A presentation put the 2025 national homicide rate at 17.5 per 100,000 people, based on figures compiled by the National Public Security System.
  • Experts note the counts rely on preliminary prosecutor data that INEGI typically reviews and often revises upward when it publishes definitive statistics.
  • Violence remains highly localized, with seven states accounting for just over half of all homicides, led by Guanajuato, Sinaloa and Baja California.
  • Opposition figures and NGOs point to ongoing targeted violence and disappearances, citing 56 politicians killed last year, including seven mayors, and a record 14,765 people reported missing, up 16%.