Overview
- President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government will implement a new minimum‑wage adjustment in 2026, with the exact figure yet to be announced.
- Banamex estimates a nominal 11% increase to 309.5 pesos per day, consistent with annual gains of 10% to 12% needed to reach the 2.5 basic‑basket goal by 2030.
- The bank links higher wages to persistent service‑sector inflation, noting quicker pass‑through in entertainment and lagged effects in education and health.
- Risks cited include higher costs that could discourage hiring and strain small and medium‑sized enterprises, alongside broader wage spillovers known as the lighthouse effect.
- Despite the risks, Banamex does not expect a faster overall inflation rate in 2026 and urges productivity, investment, and human‑capital measures, including higher female labor participation.