Overview
- With the deadline days away, President Donald Trump’s threatened increases of up to 30% focus on non‑compliant goods, and existing measures include 50% on steel, aluminum and copper.
- Mexico reports roughly 85 discussions with U.S. officials and coordinated consultations with Canada intended to resolve sensitive issues before the formal 2026 review.
- Steel and aluminum remain in the unresolved tranche, as Mexico says it has presented multiple options to Washington and has suspended more than a thousand steel mill registrations pending a U.S. response.
- Moody’s Analytics now estimates the effective U.S. tariff on Mexican exports at 7.5% after greater alignment with USMCA rules, while warning the rate could be nudged higher as negotiating leverage.
- Mexico has outlined contingency tools, including proposed WTO‑ceiling tariffs on 1,463 product lines in its 2026 budget, and says a $297 billion portfolio of 1,776 investment projects has not been canceled.