Overview

• The First Informe de Gobierno cites 1.2% real year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025 and notes global uncertainty that has tempered manufacturing output and investment.
• INEGI’s early estimate shows the economy up 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.
• The report highlights a 12% average wage increase in the first half and 811 billion pesos in 2025 infrastructure spending, while claiming large poverty reductions since 2018.
• México ¿Cómo Vamos? estimates Q1 2025 GDP per capita at 191,549 pesos, about 1.2% below 2018, arguing overall growth has not outpaced population increases.
• A México ¿Cómo Vamos? analyst projects roughly 0.4% GDP growth for 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, urging stronger investment, more formal jobs, clean energy, rule of law and more efficient public spending.