Overview
- Banco de México reports $45.681 billion in remittances received in January–September 2025, down 5.5% year over year, with September falling about 3% and first‑half operations and amounts off roughly 5%.
- Flows from key U.S. origins weakened unevenly: California declined 9%, Texas 3% and Colorado 36%, while North Carolina rose 8% and Illinois 3%.
- BBVA projects a full‑year contraction near 5–5.8% in 2025, which would be the first annual decline since 2013.
- U.S. law sets a 1% tax on cash‑origin remittances starting January 1, 2026, and roughly 70% of U.S. remittance amounts are estimated to start in cash.
- Mexico plans to offset the levy in part by covering up to 1% on a $400 monthly average for qualifying cash transfers via Financiera para el Bienestar, while the government and providers promote cards, apps and lower‑fee electronic channels.