Overview

• Conagua reports a 20% chance of development in 48 hours and 60% within seven days for the low south of Chiapas.
• The disturbance was located about 235 km south of the Suchiate River mouth on Tuesday, up from an earlier advisory at 415 km with lower odds.
• SMN forecasts possible evolution into a tropical cyclone by the end of the week, which would be named Sonia if it forms.
• Forecast guidance calls for heavy to very heavy rainfall, with intense downpours expected in Oaxaca and Chiapas on Wednesday and Thursday.
• If it develops, it would be the 18th named system of an active Pacific season that has produced 17 cyclones, including 10 hurricanes.