Overview

• INEGI’s early IOAE reading indicates economic activity rose 0.1% month over month in August after an estimated 0.5% decline in July, leaving annual growth near 0.2%.
• The IOAE points to a sharp year‑on‑year drop of about 2.0% in secondary activities in August, while commerce and services advanced roughly 0.7%.
• On a monthly basis, industry was essentially flat in August and services posted a modest 0.1% increase, highlighting weak momentum.
• The IMF’s Article IV staff statement raised Mexico’s GDP forecast to 1.0% for 2025 and to 1.5% for 2026, describing near‑term risks as broadly balanced.
• The fund cited fiscal consolidation, a still‑restrictive monetary stance and U.S. trade tensions as drags on demand, and it called for debt‑anchoring efforts and further easing once inflation is clearly on target.