Overview
- INEGI data published Tuesday, October 27 shows merchandise exports rose 37.9% year‑on‑year in September to $77.8 billion while imports climbed 33.1% to $78.4 billion, producing a monthly deficit of $606.1 million.
- Despite September’s shortfall, Mexico logged a record January–September export total near $627.2 billion and a cumulative trade surplus of about $9.25 billion for the first nine months of 2026.
- The export boom is concentrated in manufactured goods with electrical and electronic equipment jumping about 94.7% year‑on‑year in September as computer and data‑center inputs tied to AI demand drove most gains.
- The United States accounted for the bulk of the increase with non‑oil exports to the U.S. up roughly 43.5% in September and taking about 84.8% of Mexico’s non‑oil shipments between January and September.
- Analysts say the surge has pushed up 2026 growth forecasts but warn that heavy reliance on imported intermediates, a large petrol deficit and rising grain imports create policy and supply risks that hinge on investment and the outcome of T‑MEC talks.