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Mexico Opens 2026 Budget Battle and Argentina Scrambles to Steady the Peso

Legislative resistance in Mexico plus currency pressure in Argentina are testing both governments' fiscal strategies.

Overview

  • Mexico’s lower house formally sent the Paquete Económico 2026 to commissions, with Morena leader Ricardo Monreal signaling spending “adjustments” across the legislative, judicial and autonomous bodies.
  • The plan raises IEPS on sugary drinks and tobacco to finance a proposed health fund and targets tighter oversight of tax fraud schemes, while the majority bloc defends the so‑called health taxes.
  • Hacienda seeks up to 1.8 trillion pesos in new borrowing for 2026 and projects pension outlays of about 2.3 trillion pesos, drawing PRI and PAN vows to vote against the revenue and spending bills as “merely recaudatory.”
  • In Argentina, the Buenos Aires provincial defeat for the government was followed by a jump in the dollar toward the exchange‑band ceiling and a selloff in bonds and stocks, with the IMF publicly backing the stabilization framework.
  • Officials and analysts outline a narrow pre‑October window to hold the FX band with high rates and limited firepower, while Ieral warns spending laws advancing in Congress could force roughly 14% additional real cuts to meet fiscal targets.