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Mexico Narrows Fiscal Gap on Stronger Revenue and Underspending Through November

Tax and tariff increases taking effect in 2026 aim to bolster collections for Pemex support.

Overview

  • Official data show public revenues of 7.4704 trillion pesos and spending of 8.4621 trillion pesos from January to November, with the public‑sector financing requirement at about 1.168 trillion pesos, down roughly 19% year over year and within congressional limits.
  • Import‑tax receipts rose about 19% in real terms and exceeded plan, a result Hacienda attributes to tighter customs enforcement, a stricter de minimis regime, and tariff adjustments that have affected platforms such as Temu and Shein.
  • Hacienda reported a 218.6 billion‑peso underspend versus the calendar, concentrated in programmable budgets and transfers to states and municipalities, which helped curb financing needs.
  • Debt‑service costs reached approximately 1.0717 trillion pesos through November, an 11.2% real increase, while the broad public‑debt measure stood at 51.7% of GDP with liabilities largely in local currency at fixed rates and long maturities.
  • September operations to assist Pemex—a $13.8 billion sovereign issuance and a $12 billion bond buyback—boosted reported oil income at the company but raised federal outlays; without them, oil revenue fell 11.6% year over year, and the 2026 budget raises IEPS on fuels and sugary drinks and lifts some import tariffs to as high as 50% for countries without trade agreements.