Overview

• Conagua and the National Meteorological Service report a high chance the disturbance will organize into a tropical cyclone in the coming days, with development odds reaching 90% over seven days.
• The low was last located roughly 485 km south-southwest of Acapulco and is moving west-northwest, according to updated advisories.
• If named, Priscilla would be the season’s 16th Pacific cyclone in a year that has already produced 15 named systems.
• Forecasts highlight heavy to very heavy rainfall with flash-flood and landslide risk in Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz, Nayarit, Colima, Michoacán, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo, and parts of Jalisco.
• A separate Atlantic disturbance near Cabo Catoche holds about a 10% chance of development, while Tropical Storm Octave remains far offshore with no expected effects on Mexico.