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Mexico Misses Revenue Target Through July as Oil Income Falls

Hacienda says lower output and exports, despite higher prices, cut petroleum receipts.

Overview

  • Public-sector income totaled 4,765,070 million pesos through July, finishing 93,114 million below the 2025 budget plan.
  • Petroleum revenues came in at 526,247 million pesos, 215,683 million under program because production and export volumes declined.
  • Tax collection reached 3,278,843 million pesos, outperforming plan by 88,165 million as ISR rose 7.1% in real terms and IVA 8.3%, aided by tighter customs enforcement.
  • Federal spending was 5,337,991 million pesos with a 3.8% annual drop and a subejercicio of 300,729 million; programmable outlays fell 7.8% and were 284,091 million below plan.
  • Mexico’s broad public debt stood at 17.8 trillion pesos at end-July, with the SHRFSP at 49.7% of GDP and federal net debt at 50.3%.