Overview

• Official forecasts now project GDP growth of 0.5% to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.8% to 2.8% in 2026, reflecting a more conservative near‑term outlook.
• Monthly activity fell 0.9% in July but showed a 0.1% gain in August, with officials pointing to export strength as the key driver of the stabilization.
• Hacienda reported a primary surplus near 0.2% of GDP, a narrower budget deficit at 4.3% from 5.7%, public debt around 52.3% of GDP, and international reserves above $240 billion.
• The government said Pemex has been deleveraged and noted the company received positive credit‑rating actions from most agencies for the first time in 12 years.
• Customs revenue rose 22% year over year, which officials attributed to stronger enforcement and anti‑smuggling efforts, while external forecasters still see only marginal growth for 2025.