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3h ago

Mexico Lifts Melissa’s Cyclone Odds to 70% Over Seven Days as System Heads Toward the Caribbean

Forecasters urge residents to watch for rain risks along Quintana Roo as the disturbance advances west at 32–40 km/h.

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Una onda tropical en el Atlántico tiene un 30% de probabilidad de convertirse en la tormenta tropical Melissa durante los próximos días. (Foto: NOAA / AFP)
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Overview

  • Conagua and the SMN now give the system that would be named Melissa a 70% chance of forming within seven days, placing it about 2,775 km east-southeast of Quintana Roo.
  • Short-term development remains lower, with about a 30% chance in 48 hours per Mexican authorities, while the U.S. National Hurricane Center also pegs the tropical wave’s odds near 30% as it moves west.
  • Authorities advise staying informed for potential coastal impacts and heavy rain in the Mexican Caribbean, noting recent flooding in several inland states.
  • Néstor holds about a 10% probability of development over both 48 hours and seven days and is far from Mexico, with no immediate danger to the country per SMN/Conagua.
  • A separate Pacific low south of Chiapas carries a 10% chance in 48 hours and 50% over seven days and is moving west away from Mexican coasts, which could eventually be named Sonia if it organizes.