Overview

• INEGI reported a 0.23% monthly rise in the CPI, lifting annual inflation to 3.76%, slightly below a 3.80% Reuters forecast.
• Core inflation climbed 0.33% on the month to 4.28% year over year, with services remaining the main source of pressure.
• Non-core prices fell 0.10% month over month and stood at 2.02% annually, as softer agricultural and regulated energy prices tempered the headline rate.
• Notable increases included housing, school fees, eateries, chile serrano and green tomato, while eggs, avocados, airfares and LP gas declined.
• Banxico lowered its policy rate to 7.5% in September, and Banamex projects headline inflation at 4.0% by year-end with core near 4.2% into late 2026 and the policy rate drifting toward 7.0% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.