Overview

• INEGI reported annual inflation at 3.76% in September, up from 3.57% in August, with core inflation at 4.28% and the headline figure slightly below the roughly 3.79% expected.
• Banxico’s policy rate stands at 7.5% after a late‑September cut, and minutes indicate the cutting cycle could continue even as some analysts now float the possibility of a pause.
• The peso weakened about 0.33% on Thursday to 18.3855 per dollar and traded near 18.40 on Friday with a modest additional dip, reflecting a muted market reaction to the data.
• Market expectations still lean toward additional easing, with surveys pointing to a year‑end policy rate near 7.0% depending on incoming inflation and activity readings.
• The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has clouded the release of key data such as the October 15 CPI report, while Mexico’s soft industrial output has added to FX and rates volatility.