Overview

• INEGI reported the INPC at 141.181, up 0.18% versus the prior fortnight, putting annual headline inflation at 3.74% for the first half of September.
• Core inflation rose 0.22% in the fortnight to 4.26% year over year, signaling underlying pressures that remain above Banco de México’s comfort level.
• Seasonal increases in educational services led the rise, with primary up 5.75%, secondary 5.48%, preschool 5.89% and university 1.63%.
• Price drops in professional services (−15.31%), air transport (−3.37%) and several agro-food items partially offset the overall increase.
• The reading stayed within Banxico’s 3% ±1 pp target range and came below a Reuters market poll at 3.78% but slightly above Banamex’s 3.73% call, as the data arrived a day before a policy decision that investors expect could bring a 25 bps cut.