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3h ago

Mexico Inflation Rises to 3.76% in September, Still Within Banxico’s Target

Banamex signals persistent core inflation near 4.2% will keep monetary easing cautious.

A woman shops at a supermarket in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, October 7, 2025. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez
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Overview

  • INEGI reported a 0.23% monthly increase in the CPI for September, lifting the annual rate to 3.76% and keeping it within Banco de México’s 2–4% target band.
  • Banxico’s reference rate stands at 7.5% after a late-September cut, its lowest level since 2022.
  • Banamex maintains its forecast for general inflation at 4.0% at the end of 2025.
  • Banamex projects the policy rate to end 2025 at 7.0% and 2026 at 6.5%, with two 25 bp cuts in Q4 2025, a pause in Q2 2026, and two more cuts in the second half of 2026.
  • The bank cites slower-than-expected deceleration in merchandise prices, sticky services, weather-aided relief in agricultural costs, and proposed taxes and duties that could lift early-2026 core readings.