Overview

• INEGI reported a 0.23% monthly rise in the CPI for September, lifting annual inflation to 3.76% and core to 4.28%, both within Banxico’s 2–4% target band.
• Services, notably education and housing along with restaurant spending, were key upward drivers, while the non‑core index fell 0.10% monthly on declines in farm goods and energy.
• Banxico’s rate stands at 7.5% after a late‑September cut, and minutes released Thursday say the board will continue evaluating additional reductions to guide inflation toward 3%.
• Subgovernor Jonathan Heath dissented in favor of holding the rate and warned that proposed tax increases and new tariffs could add inflation risks into 2026.
• Analysts widely expect two more 25‑bp cuts in November and December to end 2025 at 7.0%, and INEGI data show regional divergence with Sonora up 0.44% monthly and Chiapas down 0.26%.