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Mexico Inflation Edges Up to 3.57% in August as Core Stays Elevated

The reading keeps policy on track for a modest Bank of Mexico rate cut later in September.

Overview

  • INEGI reported a 0.06% monthly rise in the INPC to an index level of 140.867, lifting the annual rate to 3.57% from 3.51% in July.
  • Core inflation held at 4.23% year over year, while the non-core index rose 1.38% annually and fell 0.47% on the month.
  • Upward pressure came from housing, small restaurants, chile serrano (about 34.9%) and tomate verde (about 16.7%), partly offset by declines in chicken (-4.62%), jitomate (-11.46%), airfares (-9.76%) and cinema (-11%).
  • Analysts and market surveys continue to anticipate a 25 basis-point Banxico cut at the late-September meeting, a view echoed by Capital Economics.
  • Producer prices increased 3.33% year over year and fell 0.35% month over month, with INEGI noting updated INPP weights that support readings of moderating upstream pressures.