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Mexico Growth Outlook Slashed to 0.4% for 2025 as Peru’s Confidence Firms, Construction Lags

Markets now see Mexico barely growing in 2025, in contrast to broadly resilient business confidence in Peru.

Overview

  • Citi’s latest survey pegs Mexico’s 2025 GDP growth at about 0.4% and trims 2026 to roughly 1.3%, both well below official targets.
  • Banco de México’s specialists’ survey shows similar medians near 0.39% for 2025 and 1.29% for 2026, with a higher probability of GDP declines in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
  • INEGI data confirm a Q3 contraction in Mexico of 0.3% quarter on quarter and 0.2% year on year, reinforcing concerns about near‑term weakness.
  • Ceesp reports fragile private sentiment in Mexico, with 93% saying conditions are worse than a year ago and only 2% calling it a good time to invest.
  • Peru’s BCRP survey indicates most expectations remain in optimistic territory and inflation expectations are anchored, yet construction shows persistent pessimism, including a 39.3 reading for three‑month investment.