Overview
- INEGI reported a 0.3% contraction quarter on quarter and year on year in Q3 2025, the first annual decline since early 2021.
- Industrial output led the downturn with a 1.5% quarterly and 2.9% annual drop, reflecting tariff uncertainty and the wind‑down of major public works.
- Sheinbaum said recent auto plant closures stem from earlier decisions to discontinue models, adding that companies are not shutting operations because of tariffs.
- Citing analyses from Banxico, the Finance Ministry and private economists, she described the setback as confined to the third quarter with a gradual recovery expected.
- Private forecasts now see roughly 0.5% GDP growth for 2025, whereas the government maintains a 1.5% to 2.3% outlook and points to employment data as a sign of stabilization.