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Mexico Gains From U.S. Tariff Shock as WTO Sees 2026 Trade Near Stall

Lower effective U.S. tariffs let Mexico and Argentina book 2025 export gains despite a 2026 slowdown forecast.

Overview

  • The WTO projects world merchandise trade will grow only about 0.5% in 2026, while CEPAL reports a sharp 2025 U.S. tariff surge that has reconfigured trade flows.
  • The Wall Street Journal reports Mexico’s effective U.S. tariff rate is about 4.7%, helping lift Mexican exports to the U.S. nearly 9% from January to November 2025 and pushing bilateral trade toward roughly $900 billion.
  • Mexican sector performance has been uneven, with auto exports down about 6% but other manufactures up 17%, and roughly 85% of Mexico’s shipments to the U.S. remain duty‑free under USMCA.
  • WSJ notes President Claudia Sheinbaum’s cooperation on narcotics enforcement and extraditions has helped preserve Mexico’s relatively favorable trade position with Washington.
  • CEPAL says Argentina faces an effective U.S. tariff near 8% and projects a 7% rise in 2025 goods exports, with trade‑diversion openings in agroindustry and selected manufactures and a resilient modern services base near 10% of the regional total.