Mexico Faces Above‑Average Cold‑Front Season as First System Arrives

Overview

• The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Conagua forecast 56 cold fronts for the 2026–2027 season, exceeding the 1990–2020 average of 50 and extending from September 2026 through May 2027.
• The first front is arriving in late September and is forecast to enter from the north, with northern states especially Tamaulipas at risk of strong northerly winds and gusts up to about 70 km/h.
• SMN projects a monthly distribution with three fronts in September and a peak in November–January when 32 of the 56 systems are likely to occur, and it identifies December as the single most active month with nine fronts.
• Officials link the higher count to a strengthened El Niño, which the SMN says will increase the chance that cold air masses meet humid air, producing more events of Norte, heavier coastal rain and possible winter storms in the northwest and north.
• National civil protection agencies have issued safety guidance and put contingency plans and military and naval support on standby to protect people from cold spells, strong winds, coastal surges and localized snowfall in highlands.