Overview
- Inegi’s rapid IOCP estimate reported Tuesday that Mexican household spending rose 0.4% in April and was flat in May, with year‑on‑year gains of about 2.2% for April and 2.6% for May.
- A private ICP‑UP index from Universidad de Palermo shows Argentina’s private consumption fell 2.2% year‑on‑year in May and declined 0.3% month‑on‑month, marking six straight months of annual drops and a 1.8% contraction through May.
- The IOCP and ICP‑UP are high‑frequency econometric indicators that provide early signals but are provisional, and IOCP has been revised when the official IMCP is published weeks later.
- Argentina’s weak reading is supported by related measures in May: real VAT receipts fell about 3%, real credit‑card purchases dropped roughly 3.5%, consumer loan growth slowed, and durable‑goods data were mixed with car registrations down 26% and motorcycle registrations up 26%.
- The divergence matters for policy and households because Mexico’s positive year‑on‑year rates partly reflect easier comparators from late 2024, while Argentina’s multi‑month decline points to persistent demand weakness that could tighten financial conditions and weigh on employment and retail activity.