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Mexican Peso Climbs on Fed-Cut Expectations After Softer US Inflation

Trading near 18.6 per dollar on Thursday, the peso reflects eased Fed tightening prospects with US PPI releases set to clarify the outlook at next week’s Jackson Hole meeting.

Overview

  • July US consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, below forecasts and triggering a drop in the ICE Dollar Index.
  • CME FedWatch futures raised the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September to nearly 100%, supporting peso gains.
  • Banco de México’s interbank/FIX rate fell from 18.6683 on Aug. 12 to 18.5657 on Aug. 13, while retail bank and exchange-house quotes remained notably wider.
  • Intraday swings on Aug. 13 saw the peso dip to about 18.51 before retracing to close near 18.64 per dollar, underlining ongoing volatility.
  • Investors are now focused on upcoming US producer price and jobless‐claims data ahead of policy insights at the Jackson Hole symposium.