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Mets Enter as Heavy Favorites for Series Finale Against Giants

Dimers.com projects a 64% win probability for New York with the over-under set at 8 runs

New York Mets’ Pete Alonso, right, celebrates after hitting a two-run home run during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants, Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
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Deadspin.com
Deadspin.com

Overview

  • New York will counter with ace Kodai Senga (7–3, 2.00 ERA) against San Francisco rookie Kai-Wei Teng (0–0, 0.00 ERA) in Saturday’s matchup at Citi Field.
  • BetMGM lists the Mets at –212 on the moneyline and the Giants at +175 with an 8-run total.
  • San Francisco arrives on a three-game road win streak and aims to narrow New York’s 3–1 edge in the season series.
  • Dimers.com’s 10,000-simulation model gives the Mets a 64% chance to win and identifies the over 8 runs at –110 as the top betting pick.
  • The Mets have thrived at home with a 37–17 record, while the Giants hold a 27–29 mark on the road this season.