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Mets and Guardians Set for Rematch With Holmes-Allen Pitching Duel

Dimers’ model gives the Mets a 64% chance of victory, making the over/under eight runs the experts’ top pick.

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New York Mets' Pete Alonso hits a single during the third inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
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Overview

  • The New York Mets (63-50) host the Cleveland Guardians (57-55) at Citi Field tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET in their second interleague meeting of the season.
  • Pete Alonso recorded four hits in Monday’s 7-6 loss, underscoring New York’s offensive uptick despite falling short.
  • Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.45 ERA) starts for the Mets against Guardians lefty Logan Allen (7-9, 4.06 ERA).
  • BetMGM lists New York as a –197 favorite and Cleveland at +163, with an over/under of eight runs.
  • Dimers’ analytics assign the Mets a 64% win probability and project a 53% chance of the game exceeding eight runs, backing the over/under wager.