Overview

• Metro Vancouver’s new baseline projects an annual average of about 42,500 net new residents, down from roughly 50,000 previously expected.
• The update points to a temporary slowdown from 2025 to 2027 tied to lower federal immigration targets and fewer non‑permanent residents, with steadier growth returning later in the decade.
• Under the medium scenario, immigration is forecast to account for about 90% of population gains through the early 2050s.
• Natural increase is projected to turn negative around 2036 as deaths outnumber births, with seniors rising from 16% of the population in 2024 to 21% by 2051.
• Surrey is projected to surpass Vancouver in 2038 and reach about 1.005 million residents by 2051, and the forecast will guide planning for housing, transit and utilities, with separate jobs and housing projections due later this year.