Overview

• Scientists highlight four consecutive years of exceptionally warm Mediterranean waters, which increase the energy available for intense storms.
• Meteored expects a stable, warmer-than-average September with below-normal rainfall for most of Spain, while models indicate possible coastal Mediterranean instability in October and November.
• Extreme downpours require the arrival of an upper-level cold pocket such as a dana or a trough, and not all such systems produce torrential rain.
• Experts describe the October 2024 Valencia event as extraordinary and likely infrequent, yet they warn that severe episodes remain possible across the basin.
• Vulnerable areas flagged include the Gulf of Valencia, Levante almeriense, Guadalentín headwaters and the Rambla del Nogal, along with Catalonia, the Balearic Islands and Málaga, prompting calls for stronger early-warning and communication.