Metabolite-Ratio Blood Test Predicts Five-Year Asthma Exacerbation Risk With About 90% Accuracy

Overview

• Published in Nature Communications, the study analyzed more than 2,500 participants across three Mass General Brigham asthma cohorts using targeted mass spectrometry.
• The predictive signal is the blood ratio of sphingolipids to steroid hormones, which proved more informative than individual metabolite levels.
• A five-year risk model reached about 90% accuracy and was confirmed in an independent cohort at 89%.
• Models based on routine clinical factors such as prior flares, lung function, or blood eosinophils achieved only 50–70% accuracy.
• Investigators report the approach could be implemented in standard labs, while noting a patent filing, disclosed conflicts of interest, and the need for clinical trials and cost-effectiveness studies.