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Meta Set to Report Q4 Results With AI Ad Strength, 2026 Spending Guidance in Focus

Options pricing points to a roughly 6% swing, with 2026 expense guidance likely to determine whether AI outlays look value accretive.

Overview

  • Meta reports fourth‑quarter 2025 results after the close on Jan. 28, with consensus near $58.4 billion in revenue and about $8.16–$8.19 EPS, while Bank of America forecasts $59.2 billion and $8.27.
  • Wall Street remains broadly bullish, with buy ratings and price targets spanning roughly $754 to $905, including BofA at $810, Evercore at $875, Redburn at $900, and HSBC at $905.
  • Agency checks point to about 29% year‑over‑year ad spending growth in Q4, and advertisers report roughly a 4% return‑on‑investment lift linked to Meta’s AI ad tools.
  • Investor focus centers on 2026 operating expense and capex guidance tied to AI infrastructure and hiring, with BofA modeling $153–$160 billion in expenses and $109–$114 billion in capex while some firms project even higher levels.
  • Regulatory and legal risks remain in view, including a Chinese probe into the Manus acquisition as well as new U.S. lawsuits over WhatsApp privacy claims and smartglasses patents.