Overview
- The Met Office said on Friday that model ensembles and observations point to a very strong El Niño with equatorial Pacific sea‑surface anomalies forecast to exceed 3°C in some runs, a level forecasters describe as unprecedented in modern records.
- Real‑time dashboards show the region already about 2.6°C above a 30‑year mean and some models project peaks near 3.9°C, but the exact peak and regional impacts remain uncertain and will be refined as the system evolves.
- For the UK the Met Office now raises the odds of a wetter, stormier autumn and early winter while officials warn short showers will not quickly end the current drought and the National Drought Group has moved to more frequent coordination; reservoir levels are reported below normal.
- Scientists and analysts say a record‑scale El Niño would raise global average temperatures—making 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record—and is likely to disrupt monsoons and rain patterns, increasing drought risk in parts of South America, Australia, southern Africa and parts of Asia.
- Practical knock‑on effects expected include higher crop losses, food‑price pressure and supply‑chain strain, and authorities worldwide are stepping up monitoring and contingency plans for water, agriculture and shipping as the event develops.