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Met Office Sees Rising Risk of Polar Warming That Could Bring Fresh UK Cold

Forecasters say a sudden stratospheric warming could tilt early December toward a renewed cold spell.

Overview

  • After a short, milder Atlantic spell, guidance points to wetter, windier conditions midweek before the pattern potentially turns colder again.
  • The Met Office says a sudden stratospheric warming is possible within a week, raising the chance of colder UK weather 10–14 days later by roughly 70%.
  • Forecasts indicate a rare freezing rain risk along Scotland’s west coast late Wednesday, posing hazards to travel, trees, and power lines.
  • Recent observations confirm an early start to winter, with lows of −11.7C at Loch Glascarnoch and widespread snow and ice warnings last week.
  • Long‑range outlooks suggest unsettled weather from late November into early December with heavy rain and some hill snow, while model signals for broader snowfall remain uncertain.