Overview

• The Met Office says the recent heatwave has ended and predicts a cooler, more changeable spell from August 21 to 30, though it cautions that confidence in the forecast is low.
• Official guidance links a deep area of low pressure in the North Atlantic to Tropical Storm/Hurricane Erin and flags the potential for wet and windy weather from about August 27.
• Privately produced WXCharts and Ventusky model maps show a 600-mile band of heavy rain reaching western and upland areas around August 27, with accumulations of up to 18 cm in Wales and higher ground.
• BBC Weather forecasts an earlier return of light showers from August 23 to 26, underlining significant discrepancies in timing and severity across forecasts.
• The UK remains under a nationally significant water shortfall after months of drought, meaning heavy late-August rainfall could both relieve parched regions and trigger flash flooding and transport disruption.